The recession is supposed to be over

In Germany and France, the second quarter was allegedly recalled low growth

If you believe the leading data from statisticians in France and Germany, then the recession would actually be over again. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has informed that gross domestic product (GDP) in 2. Quarter 2009 price, seasonal and calendar cleaned against the previous quarter should have increased by 0.3%. Previously, the economy had shrunk four quarters in a row. In the previous quarter, it was still a minus of 3.5%, the strongest rint of the calculation of official quarterly results in 1970 have been recorded since the beginning of the calculation.

So the numbers are quite good, but they are mainly due to the countless programs for the economic situation worldwide. "The recession is probably over", You now come into a phase of stabilization and a slight growth, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) is already rejoicing despite everything. And you may be curious when the demand for a further VAT would be presented again and more vehemently. Because the expensive programs and banking rescues have to be paid to the taxpayer still, because they have finally driven the new debt to new record values.

But you look at the business beams year-on-year, there is not much to the wrinkle. Compared to the second quarter of 2008, price-adjusted GDP was 7.1% back. Anyway, it is not one "final" Calculation of the results of the national accounts (VGR) because the necessary basic statistics are not available for this. Da recalculation normally "Changing rates of the year-round and quarter-year GDP (original values)" result, "which deviate from up to 0.3 percentage points from the previously published results", is to be suspected that maybe a socket set has been reached. The many programs may have liked that the economy does not shrink even further. A more detailed calculation will give the Federal Office only on the 25. August 2009 known.

Who thinks, the problems are over, is wrong. So a variety of experts point out that the real problems exist everyone, in particular the banking sector still relies on the state protective screen. Japan is also a memorizing example. There it had taken almost 15 years for the consequences of the burst real estate bubble. Only a short time later, the country was fully caught by the current financial and economic crisis. This should be a memorial here that the deflation trends are becoming stronger, which Japan had bothered so hard.

Despite all happy embassies, the DIW is true of the Germans, though they can still lose the job. "The risk remains a clear increase in unemployment." If the short-time work flushes to remove in autumn, steam that the leaning and thus the consumption, which previously remained relatively stable in Germany, just because the crisis, unlike, for example, in Spain, has not yet fully hit the labor market. There are more than 4.1 million officially paid unemployed more than in Germany, with half the population.

France is already positive. The important trading partners of Germany also have a growth of 0.3%, explained the French Minister of Economic Affairs Christine Lagarde. The French economy has grown slightly after the premental quarter numbers for the first time for a year. Above all, the positive development in the field of non-trading has contributed to it, because exports were increased by one percent after they have fallen by 7.1% in the preceding quarter. Presumably, however, the value added tax reduction in some areas has also been stimulating here.

Beginative optimism

After leading data, the economy is once again compared to the previous quarter, but only slightly shrunk by 0.1%. Lithuania even recorded a minus of 12.3%, while the economy in Slovakia has grown by 2.2%.

Despite the minus, the European Central Bank (ECB) in the Jubel Choir agrees. The ECB Board member Jurgen strong wants to see significant signs for a stabilization of the economic development in the eurozone. In an interview with the Borsenzeitung he said the tendencies "no longer only on surveys, but are increasingly being confirmed by real economic data".

Strong but says the "Behavior optimism in perspective" to take a jerk. "What we currently see is essentially based on the stimulation maps of governments and the resurgence of the camps." As long as this is so, "we can not count on a sustainable return to a higher growth path". He sees little deflation hazards, but warns before a potential inflation.

But if the ECB’s real positive data and an inflation risk, one wonders why it has just been stable at the interest rate meeting at the interest rate meeting with leans 0.5%? In an allegedly attractive economy and inflation hazards, she had to start counterpart. Lay out this only with that you doubt in Frankfurt on your own exercises. With the DOPEN of the continued to shaky banks, the bank die, which comes in the USA just so right in the US, is not here again "Everything will be fine"-Propaganda counteracted.

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