Psychology of the crisis

The G7 countries are available with beautiful words and without concrete measures against the financial crisis, which has already registered Japan or Spain

In Japanese Tokyo, the seven leading industrialist (G-7) came together on Saturday. The Ministers of Finance and central bank chiefs have advised the turbulence on the financial market and the risks for the global economy, which ame the US credit crisis. But over appeal formulas was not much to hear from the crisis summit, concrete measures were again not decided. The market responded, and also professional optimists on the borse slowly goes out the puffs. That the European Central Bank (ECB) has not lowered the key interest rates last week, love the borsen again on descent.

That psychology can have a rough impact on the developments of the global economy is known. Therefore, the G7 states US, Japan, Germany, Canada, Great Britain, France and Italy now agreed in Tokyo to avoid negative terms in order not to worsen the situation further. That was the signal that went out of the Mini Summit in London. Not even from a threatening recession in the US, before which was clearly warned on the Davos World Economic Summit, has been spoken. They had consequences for the entire global economy. There would "Uncertainty" Because of the weak of the US economy, one has agreed on a bondling language regulation. In the joint explanation, it is hopefully farther, the corner data of the global economy is still solid. Spoken is from a slowdown setting that can be different in individual countries. In the US, growth has "obscure". There were also risks, such as high raw material prices, the extension of the problems at the US mortgage market or inflation hazards.

"We are ready to take further necessary measures in order to stabilize the financial market and ensure that the international integration of financial markets and financial instruments continues to work for the benefit of the global economy", If you read in the Close Communique. The improvement of the liquidity and risk management of the banks and more transparency is required. The risks now had to be laid out loseless, there should be better cooperation with the supervisory authorities and the role of the International Truth Fund (IMF) should be initiated as a warning device. Concretely, one agreed on no steps. Each country has to take money and fiscal actions, "which are appropriate for the respective conditions", it is called nebulos.

The German Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck was still talking in the run-up to recessive tendencies in the US economy. He also saw in credit card financing or car loans. No one knew how high these risks are and whether they realized. He just estimated the depreciation requirement of the US mortgage crisis with $ 400 billion. Since there were only about 200 billion in the books of the banks, despite the praising words from Tokyo with persistent terror reports over the entire year is expected.

In order not to dangerous to the awarded unit, individual G7 states could not be invited to concrete measures. Neither the extreme price decline of the dollar nor that of the yen will be mentioned in the final recognition. The fact that a recession is threatened in Japan shows the price decline in Japanese preservation. The yen has almost lost half of his value since the millennium opposite the euro – in the last twelve months alone, the minus was twelve percent. Way advice you had in Tokyo only for other parate. In the face of its continued rising current account surplus and its high inflation, China was thus urged to allow a faster appreciation of the Yuan. The oil-producing countries were also prompted, "to increase their mistress", To reduce the high price.

European central bank under prere

Also, the pessimism of the Prasident of the European Central Bank (ECB) Jean-Claude Trichet is not reflected in the explanation. Although the ECB had left the key interest rates last week for another four weeks to 4 percent, while Trichet had opened the ture for early interest rate cuts. Unlike in the previous month, in spite of the high inflation, interest rate cuts no longer closed categorically. At the press conference after the interest rate decision, he has arbitrarily stressed that the economic risks have grown significantly. "The economic cooling in the most important trading partners will slow the growth in the euro zone", he said.

It is not only under the prere of the market and politics, but on Thursday is an important bonded to the Bank of England. According to the two coarse interest rate cuts of the US Federal Reserve on the meantime 3 percent, the British Central Bank also lowered the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point and thus stimulates the demands to stimulate the weakness economy in the Great Britain. However, unlike the ECB, the Bank of England has much more scope. Finally, the interest rate level with 5.25% is continued at a high level and the inflation rate in December of 2.1 percent next to the target mark of 2 percent.

Of these, Trichet can not speak. The ECB inflation target of 2 percent is constantly infering in the distance. Compared to the previous year, the Eurostat’s European Statistics Agody accounted for 3.2 percent inflation at the end of January. This achieved the inflation at the beginning of the year the highest value since the introduction of the euro. The ECB had to are the interest rate actually, if you care about your task, to ensure the interest rate. The fact that the ECB and Trichet do not even speak of it shows, unlike the positive positivism, which is afraid of the outside, her fear of giving the economy in the euro area in the exhorted strudel. In general, the financial markets had not expected no interest rate cut by the ECB, but the boron courses were in the basement after the interest decision of the ECB. Because in the parquet you can see the dangers and expects significant steps to meet the negative developments. Nautical words like in London or Tokyo help little. General is expected that the actual crisis is still imminent. Therefore, the degree clarification of the G-7 makes the investors only a little courage. Ryohei Muramatsu from Commerzbank in Tokyo, demanding urgent solutions for his two large worries that sound very different than the G7 states: "A collapse of the financial market and a US economy on the way to the recession".

Spain in the crisis: 4.4 percent inflation

In Tokyo, it was claimed to raise no economic programs in Europe as in the US and see no need for it. But that’s not true. Spain has long begun. Inflation celebrated in the country with official 4.4 percent in January again a new record. In this case, the Caixa-Bank determined, is for the average spanner the inflation on the basic cart already at 7.9 percent. Fuel and milk filed the list with an increase in price of 31 percent, the bread price rose by more than 16 percent, eggs by nearly 10 percent and fruits by almost 8%.

Despite allegedly high economic growth of proud 3.8 percent in 2007, unemployment has been continuously increasing since last summer. In January, 132 came again.000 unemployed added. That’s equal to 6.2 percent more than in the previous month and it is the highest increase that has ever been recorded since the end of the dictatorship in 1975. Officially, 2.3 million people are now without a job. The fact that the majority of the new unemployed persons comes from the service sector shows that the real estate crisis and the price increases have broken out on the general consumption.

So it is not just campaign tactics that Minister Prosident Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero wants to send a tax credit from 400 euros in June in June. It is also a vote of votes, because the law must have the socialists (PSOE) on 9. Marz win the elections, but also to targeted economic policy. The sum corresponds to about the $ 600, which will also receive consumers in the US about the economic stimulus program to boost consumption in view of a recession. Meanwhile, Zapatero has begun to expand the maaking. Even self-standing should be enjoyed by tax events to enjoy the injection. This will add another 700 million euros to the treasured funf billions, which should cost the concealed economic stimulus program.

He now openly admits that the country’s economic data, which,, in 2008 according to the government, expects growth of 3.1 percent, are not good. Therefore, additional billions of public expenses are to be pumped into the draining construction industry. What had been foreseeable for years, Minister of Economics Pedro Solbes, once EU Commissioner for Economics, has not seen: "It is true that we have not foreseen that real estate financing became so severely affected", he said. Last year alone, 30 have.000 – 40.000 real estate agentburg made densely, the specialist association announced. This makes it clear what out of the real estate crisis has already adopted in Spain. Four years ago, the socialists also approved that people must be faulted on life to come to an apartment. It is to be expected that Spain is only the beginning and ashesic programs will therefore be placed in other EU countries.

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