The crucial battle

The contested coarse attack of US dispute in Falludscha and Ramadi carries rough risks

For weeks it will be exhaust: the next "decisive battle" Iraq. A coarse offensive in Falludscha and Ramadi, the two "Rebelshochbabenges" In the Sunni nuclear country. Latest news from the Marines limited parties outside Falludscha speak of that Major Assault "probably inevitable" is and the "Roughest and potentially the most risky" Attack since the end of the "Main campaigns" will be in May of the last year.

As a political goal and justification for the imminent attack, which has been militarian for months with almost daily bombs on ever new ones "Shelter" The Sarqawi Gang is prepared in Falludscha, one explains that you want to bring Falludja and the strategically as important Ramadi in time for the upcoming elections under government control. But at what price?

About 100.000 civilian victims has been complaining of Iraq since the military invasion of the USA and their composites. At this estimation, a study of the study published in the medical journal The Lancet John’s Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore. The half of the victims are women and children. These have Iraqi interviewers, which under large dangers over 900 households in 33 representative settlements / neighborhoods ("Neighborhoods") Interviewed in the country, determined. Most died of the consequences of bombings of the coalition troops. The risk of violent death, so the study, is now in Iraq for 58fold high than before the invasion of the coalition troops.

The Risk of Death What Estimated to Be 2 · 5-Fold (95% CI 1 · 6-4 · 2) Higher After The Invasion WHEN COMPARED WITH THE PREINVASION PERIOD. Two Thirds of All Violent Deaths Were Reported in One Cluster in The City of Falluja. IF WE EXCLUDE THE FALUJA DATA, THE RISK OF DEATH IS 1 · 5-FOLD (1 · 1-2 · 3) Higher After The Invasion. WE Estimate That 98000 More Deaths Than Expected (8000-194000) Hinted After The Invasion Outside Of Falluja And Far More If the Outlier Falluja Cluster is Included. The Major Causes of Death Before The Invasion Were Myocardial Infunction, Cerebrovascular Accidents, And Other Chronic Disorders WHEREAS After The Invasion Violence What the Primary Cause of Death. Violent Deaths Were Widespread, Reported in 15 of 33 Clusters, And Were Mainly Attributed To Coalition Forces. Most Individuals Reportedly Killed by Coalition Forces Were Women and Children. The RISK OF DEATH FROM Violence in The Period After The Invasion What 58 Times Higher (95% CI 8 · 1-419) Than in The Period Before The War.

The strongest affected is according to the study, which was now hurriedly posted by the Fachmagazin Lancet Medical Journal because of the preliminary publications of the results in the media in the media, expectations of Falludscha, where the "large number of violent death trap was registered". If this result is presented to the standard ranges, which are always committed to the official messages on bomb attacks on quarters of the Sarqawi terrorists, after which the attacks with surgical precision were conducted and no knowledge of civilian victims is subject to a rough gap between the statements the current American lead and the Iraqi realitat. One flees a struggle for their own claim to Hearts and Minds to win the population and not to make the situation in the country even to worse and to reach attractually high sacrificial numbers as the "Mass murderer" Saddam Hussein.

Other abolishes in the political objective of the attack, the strategy and the military remedies used. The durable bombardement, which Falludscha has been exposed for several months, is apparently serving a tactics that the so-called "Sparkish" turb. That the population is included, is part of the brutal calculus. One wants to drive a gap between the inhabitants and the camphoric gangs, of which mutually many come from the neighboring countries. How high their number is actually, but nobody knows exactly. Clerics from Falludja, who act as a negotiation partner in negotiations with the Iraqi Interim Government, did not even know if Sarqawi and his troupe stay in the city in the city. His delivery was Conditio Sine Qua Non for one "peaceful regulation" According to the conditions of Iraqi Premier Allawi.

The further procedure is probably following the "preserved" Tactical Pattern: The bombardment from the air is continued, the bar of the Marines, which are now partly positioned in the suburbs of the city, is always tightrated, single pre-subtle, Lily Pad (Waterless) cells built, of which further operations go out until the city is under control, which then hand over the Iraqi security forces. They should then keep control of a longest period – unlike the Falludscha Brigade, which used as a solution in April and soon from the uprising "accepted" became.

A similar military conquest strategy have tried the Marines in April this year in Falludscha and are on "Political interference" failed because the Office including UN Observers has unrusted the brutal military approach. The woman house reacted with a jerking of the Marines. Also the showdown in the "Valley of peace" In Nadschess in August this year, also proclaimed as a crucial battle, did not develop a military victory of the Alliance between Allawi’s safety favers and the American troops: there was a political solution through the intervention of the strong man, Ali Sistani, a political solution (cf. Concealed goals), in the consequence of the rebellious Bose, which wanted to define end-tolligm, could continue to operate almost without prejudice.

Even the current attempt of the military conquest Falludschas carries a high political risk for the USA as for the Iraqi interim government. On the one hand, the worldwide remuffing on the victims, which will probably demand the surgery – not all inhabitants have left the place – once again drove that the military advance has to be stopped from political reasons before the full-length control is gained over the city – with the well-known sequence that the "Sparkish" rather committed to be defeated. On the other – and that is crucial for the rough target – the military attack on the majority Sunni city of Dafur can ensure that the imminent election bowcoat of the Sunnis, so far only from the influential organization Association of Muslim Scholars Pronounced, political reality becomes. One became what the choice is concerned in January, thus come from the rain into the meager.

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