Cairo neighborhood Imbaba. In the background a choice poster with the counterfei of Mohamed Morsi. Photos: Martin Hoffmann
Egypt before the runoff: the dispute over the political process growth
Many Egyptians see themselves represented by the two candidates in the run-selection. Development of the political process growth. In addition, more viewed electoral false in favor of the second-placed ex-General Ahmed Shafiq.
The straws of Imbaba, this wildly growing district in the north Kairos, are full and loudly, the Strahandrander of Mull. The faces of the premium candidates prongs of the unmocked brick walls. Scattered 2 million people live in this narrow and superfilled quarter. People with little room to life, a few promotional opportunities and little education – the workers’ and underlay the capital. Imbaba is only the biggest and best known among the wild arms. One third of the 20 million inhabitants Kairos lives in similar circumstances.
They are those people who like to be seen by many observers from the West as a light lining for the Islamists. But in the prasidal election, IMBABA has mostly not chastened the candidates of the Muslim Brother Mohamed Morsi. With its ideology of Islamic renewal (An-Nahda), the Brotherhood could not score among the poor of the capital. They were the sakular candidates Hamdeen Sabbahi and Ahmed Shafiq, which best sections here, albeit with a completely different agenda.
No triumph for the muslim brother
Even if the Muslim Brother were dominated by the political landscape of Egyptens, their candidate Morsi should be the runoff election (on the 16th. and 17. June) Win, the first round of electoral was by no means a triumph for the brotherhood. In an unexpected low turnout of only 46%, only 5.8 of the UBER 50 million voters voted for Mohamed Morsi, the candidates of Muslim Brotherhood voted.
For the largest Muslim organization of the world, which has considerable financial resources and a widely branched organizational structure, these do not mean much more than the mobilization of their basis for their candidates. In the parliamentary elections of January, the Muslim Brother was able to unite over 40% of the votes in a far-reaching turnout.
Loss of trust
However, low turnout reflects 15 months after the revolution and 4 months after the parliamentary elections also a loss of confidence in the political transition process.
Many people have lost faith in the fair character of this process after the elected parliament dominated by Muslim Bruterns and the government appointed by the Militarates have repeatedly transferred in recent action in recent months. Hardly a new law could be adopted.
Economical note and safety as a driving force of the electoral decision
So in this choice for most of the Wahler was not the God-Basic State in the foreground, but material grade. In many parts of the country there was repeatedly to supply casses in recent months, z.B. For gas for the cake use or gasoline at the petrol stations. The strain crime in the coarse dates has also increased since the revolution, although Cairo is still far below the international average average city. Both aspects benefited the second and third-placed candidate Ahmed Shafiq and Hamdeen Sabbahi. Both occurred with a clearly defined agenda in the election campaign, in contrast to the broadly established "Consensus" AMR Moussa and Abdel Moneim Aboul Photoouh, which were long considered the most opportunity prasidal.
Ahmed Shafiq’s election campaign turned primarily to restore security. He made his past as a fight pilot in the army and the image of the uncompromising maker. From his time as a aviation minister under Hosni Mubarak, he is attributed to him the modernization of the most agypal airline and the construction of the new Cairo airport. As the last Prime Minister among Mubarak, he is now responsible for violence against protesters during the transition days. More than any other candidate he adapts the caste of the "Felool" – the members of the old regime.
Sabbahi Apart in Imbaba
The other surprise winner, Hamdeen Sabbahi, could score with an agenda of social compensation and emphasized Volksman near the electors. "One of us!", Chill his election posters on which he is always laughing. That was not only good at the city’s underlayer: In Cairo and Alexandria, Sabbahi was able to meet more votes than anyone else.
Hamdeen Sabbahi was the next time with his agenda, who had guided to the revolution, was the next: the eclatant socio-economic injustice in the country. The lack of perspectivity, especially youth, has not improved since the revolution, youth unemployment is still extremely high. Many small farmers in the NILDELTA can barely make a living through agriculture and hike into the slums of Cairo and Alexandria.
Although judicial proceedings are running against a small part of the old regimental business elite around Mubarak son Gamal. But the army continues to control scattered 25-40% of the most agypal economy.
The requirement after the strong man
The good performance of the ex-General Shafiq may surprise against this background, but this is plausible.
His supports pay people who fell better under the old regime than in the opposite transition phase with uncertain output – population circuits that have something to lose: parts of the middle class, ex-members of the old ruling party Hizb-Al Vattani, as well as a coarse part The Coptic minority, which is a fear of Islamic radicalization. For these people, Shafiq was most likely to reproduce a return to the old predictable ratios. Shafiq was the only one of the candidates who have repeatedly opened up against the revolution.
But people in impoverished neighborhoods like Imbaba have voted for him. In some districts in the Nildela, which are considered the bastions of the Muslim Brotherhood, Ahmed Shafiq is even the best. More than any other candidate he adapts the image of word cars "Machist". 15 months after the fall of Mubaraks, in a phase of continued economic uncertainty, the requirement is rising again after the strong man.
Close of electoral fraud
But it suggested that this strong man could only land with the help of electoral fraud in second place.
According to Sabbahi attachments 900 should.000 conservation obligations have been requested to elect Shafiq, although conscripts are excluded by law from the vote tax. This lawsuit was submitted by Sabbahi attachments at the Highest Electoral Commission. The Commission refused an investigation, which brought further speculation about the political neutrative of the electoral commission. In the eyes of Sabbahi attachments and some political analysts, the Commission is not free from the influence of the military.
Scenarios for the time after the run-off between Shafiq and Morsi say a further polarization of the political landscape ahead – a situation in which a coarse part of the Egyptian does not find itself.
The majority of the Egyptians neither a Islamic state still liked a restoration of the Mubarak state in a slowdown form. The majority of the Egypt is waiting impatient to improving the lives.
To be placed in front of the choice of two candidates, which only represent these contrary poles of the political spectrum, many Egypters threaten to alienate from the political process. Despite the danger of an accaluation of army and Muslim Brotherhood, however, there is hope in Egypt: seemingly every Struzecke, in cafes and in businesses, in buses and the Cairo subway is currently being discussed about politics.
A new discussion culture has broken down train. Brightly people who have just discovered the possibility of co-determination for themselves are in exchange on the future of the country. This spirit is from the bottle and – completely independently of the outcome of the election – no regime will again be completely back to the bottle of the bottle.